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The careful application of expert judgment methods can be an important tool in uncertainty analysis. IEc has assumed a leadership role in this field through its work with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, specifically the application of probabilistic expert judgment methods as a way to improve the characterization of uncertainty in key elements of benefits analysis for rules affecting air quality. Most recently, we conducted an analysis of the mortality effects of fine particulate matter (PM) exposure, using a structured interview protocol to elicit experts' judgments on the shape of the concentration-response function and on the probabilistic distribution of the PM/mortality effect coefficient. EPA applied our work to the uncertainty analysis associated with the Non-Road Diesel and Clean Air Interstate Rules.
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